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RV wholesale shipments are expected to total approximately 230,300 units in 2010, an anticipated gain of 39 percent above the 2009 total of 165,700.

Shipments are projected to rise to 249,700 in 2011 according to a new forecast by RV industry analyst Dr. Richard Curtin, released at RVIA's Annual Membership Luncheon on June 9.

“The RV market is firmly on the road to recovery,” said RVIA Vice President of Administration Mac Bryan, who presented Curtin’s forecast to RVIA members. “This is a remarkable rebound given the length and depth of the Great Recession.”

The surge in shipments reflects the need for dealers to restock depleted inventories in advance of renewed strength in retail sales. The pace of progress is expected to moderate in the second half of 2010 because of slow job and income growth, and questions about credit availability.

“While RVs have quickly accelerated to renewed peaks in past recoveries, the current journey will be longer and the road will not be as smooth or straight as in the past,” Bryan said. “A recovery that is slower and more variable will be the new normal for the RV industry.”

Three main areas are expected to affect the pace of recovery in RV sales: the financial health of consumers, changes in fiscal and monetary policies, and continued volatility in financial markets, according to Curtin’s forecast. Consumer confidence will be affected by the pace of growth in jobs and incomes, home prices, and credit markets. However, Bryan told members, greater improvement than now expected in any of these areas would lead to a more robust recovery in 2011 and beyond.

While the pace of RV industry recovery will depend on how the economic downturn affects the ability of consumers to purchase RVs, Curtin’s findings show that the desire to own an RV is as strong as ever.

“The basic demand for RVs is deeply rooted in family values, the enduring appeal of the natural environment, and people’s desire to instill in the next generation their cherished traditions,” wrote Curtin in his forecast.

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