Thor, Analyst Agree on Forces Affecting Demand

A picture of TRG CEO Kathryn Thompson, color version

Thompson Research Group (TRG) founding partner and CEO Kathryn Thompson said Thor Industries management supported the analyst group’s view of macroeconomic forces affecting consumer RV demand.

Thompson said TRG’s experience found RV dealer stocking levels are more directly affected by rising interest costs than inflation. Meanwhile, consumer demand is more meaningfully affected by broader inflation, from groceries to utility bills, Thompson said.

Thor Industries’ leadership agreed on those points in discussing the RV manufacturer’s fiscal third-quarter earnings, Thompson said.

Among other takeaways from Thor’s announcement, Thompson said the manufacturer would have to slow RV manufacturing by about 25% the rest of the year to reach its full-year wholesale RV shipment estimates.

“Management indicated the company has not reduced production to that level yet, but had already pulled back on towable production in April to adjust volumes downward,” Thompson said. “We expect a gradual decline downward through the summer as the industry gauges retail demand, with potential for significant deceleration above the 25% declines near the end of the year.”

Thompson also noted as Thor announced it achieved the No. 1 spot among RV OEMs in the Type B motorhome category, the category’s growth among all motorhomes continues to surge.

In 2021, Type B motorhomes represented 22% of all North American motorhome registrations, according to Statistical Surveys Inc. Through the first four months of April, Type B motorhomes represented 30.5% of all motorhome registrations.

In 2020, Type B motorhomes were 16% of all motorhome registrations. In 2019 they were 11% of all motorhome registrations.

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