First 2023 Wholesale RV Shipment Forecast Shows Pre-2020 Pace

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RV wholesale shipments are projected to reach 498,800 units by year-end 2022 and 419,000 units in 2023, according to the Fall 2022 issue of RV RoadSigns, the quarterly forecast prepared by ITR Economics for the RV Industry Association (RVIA).

“This new forecast projects 2022 to be the second or third best year on record for RV shipments and projects 2023 to be in line with our 10-year average, which is considerably above our 20 and 30-year numbers,” RVIA President and CEO Craig Kirby said. “For decades, our industry has seen ebbs and flows, yet we’ve seen continuous overall shipment growth for more than 40 years as RVing remains a popular option for consumers who are looking for the freedom to travel while also controlling their costs.”

Looking to 2023, the forecast projects shipments to range between 409,000 to 429,000 units with a most likely year-end total of 419,000, a (-16%) decline from the projected 2022 total.

The 419,000 would bring shipments closer to pre-2020 levels. In 2016, RVIA reported the industry passed 400,000 annual wholesale shipments for the first time, registering 430,691. From 2016-2019, the industry averaged 456,258 wholesale RV shipments.

The new forecast projects 2022 RV shipments to range between 487,300 and 510,300 units with a most likely year-end total of 498,800 units, a (-16.9%) decline from the record 600,240 shipped in 2021.

If the 2022 projection is accurate, the industry will average 509,817 wholesale RV shipments from 2020-2022.

The softening economic backdrop, as measured by declines in ITR’s system of leading indicators, is impacting the RV shipment forecast. Coupled with lower savings rates, elevated inflation, and higher interest rates, these factors are putting pressure on consumer budgets, leading select consumers to reduce or postpone spending on discretionary items such as RVs.

Record shipments in the first half of 2022 allowed dealerships to replenish inventory. RVIA said dealers are now managing through their inventory and planning out for 2023.

RVIA members can view the Summer 2022 issue of RV RoadSigns here.

Members are invited to attend a webinar with ITR Economics for an in-depth explanation of the new forecast Sept. 7 at 2 p.m. ET. Members can register for the webinar here.

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