While a quarterly forecast continues to predict 2023’s wholesale RV shipments at the lowest level in a decade, the latest update projects 2024 to be better than it appeared three months ago.
The Fall 2023 issue of RV RoadSigns, the quarterly forecast prepared by IRT Economics for RVIA, found no change to the 2023 wholesale RV shipment projection issued in June. The report said 2023 shipments are expected to range between 287,200 and 307,000, with 297,100 the most likely total.
The projection would be the lowest annual shipment total since 2013, when the industry shipped 312,127 RVs. The 285,749 wholesale RV shipments in 2012 are the last time the industry shipped fewer than 300,000 RVs in a calendar year.
The change in the RV RoadSigns forecast comes in 2024.
The new forecast predicts shipments ranging from 363,700 to 375,700 RVs, with the likeliest total being 369,700.
The total would be at least a 22% increase from 2023’s projected total. This is the third consecutive quarter the RoadSigns report increased 2024 forecast expectations.
In the spring report, issued at the end of February, the forecast ranged from 324,300 and 344,000 shipments, with the most likely total of 334,100. In the summer report, issued in June, the forecast increased to a range of 342,500-354,400 with 348,400 the most likely total.
The new fall report is a 10.6% increase from the spring and a 6% increase from summer, based on the most likely totals.
RVIA President and CEO Craig Kirby said: “This new forecast shows that RV shipments will continue to level off through the remainder of 2023 and then begin to improve in 2024. Our research shows that consumer interest in living an active outdoor lifestyle remains strong, and there are RVs available at every price point for consumers eager to get outdoors and recreate.”
The report said shipments likely will stabilize as 2023 progresses, with rising interest rates’ effects subsiding and RV dealer inventory levels normalizing.
“A defined rising trend is likely to emerge in mid-2024,” the report said, “as the downside pressures on shipments from the macroeconomy will have eased.”
RVIA members can get more information about the forecast during a webinar with ITR Economics. The 60-minute member-only webinar is at 11 a.m. ET on Sept. 14. To register, click here.